If you were to key word search the term “hurricane forecast”, among the first entries you’d find is a reference to Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University. To those of us who obsess about risk, Dr. Gray is quite the celebrity. Each year Dr. Gray and his team of research scientists dares to announce how many hurricanes we can expect during the season. For the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast, Dr. Gray and his Colorado State University staff are predicting 18 named storms, 10 of which are estimated to develop into hurricanes. They estimate a 76 percent likelihood that a major hurricane, with winds of 111 mph (178 kph) or greater, will strike the U.S. This figures represents a 24% increase over the average for the past century. For those wondering why, few should be surprised to learn that meteorological conditions around the globe are optimal for hurricane development. Sea surface temperatures in the Lesser Antilles and off the western coast of the African continent are the warmest in recorded history. Combined with an absence of high altitude wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean, Gray advises the 2010 season will be particularly active.
Unlike Dr. Gray and other climate experts, I can actually provide several GUARANTEES regarding this hurricane season: Whether a major hurricane makes landfall in the U.S. or not, the vast majority of Americans will elect not to prepare for one. Rather than take precautions, most Americans will simply gamble that their homes, possessions and families will remain safe from natural disaster. Many will be correct, but some will be wrong. But — a select few will make sure they are prepared for a natural disaster and will have a plan in place, just in case. Do you need help on how best to prepare for a hurricane? I can provide clear guidance and a list of available solutions and resources, but I cannot help unless you let me. Call me or send me an e-mail.